Mumbai Extreme Rainfall
An offshore vortex intensified orographic rainfall across the western suburbs over a 12-hour window.
Event timeline
How the system responded as the event developed.
Vortex identified
NCUM resolves the offshore circulation earliest.
Weight reallocation
NCUM weight rises from 21% to 34%.
Extreme threshold
Blend crosses the 100 mm/24h warning threshold.
Observation
Automatic stations report 146 mm; blend forecast 138 mm.
Map replay
Forecast footprint for this event. Click a state to inspect neighbouring regions.
Forecast replay
Slide through the forecast cycles toward verification.
147.2 mm
146.3 mm
143.3–151.4 mm
79%
Model disagreement
Source forecasts against the blend for this event.
Adaptive weight change
Before the event vs during the event.
- BharatFS20%24%
- NCUM20%34%
- GFS20%11%
- GEFS20%22%
- AI Forecast Proxy20%9%
Outcome
Validation against the observation network.
Adaptive blend reduced RMSE by 18.2% relative to the simple-average baseline.
Active monsoon · 24h lead · Maharashtra
Event context
Rainfall
Active monsoon
61
Severe
Prototype scenario built on deterministic demonstration data, not a verified historical record.