Validation
Does adaptive blending actually outperform the alternatives? Every source, a simple average and a static ensemble are compared on the same context.
Forecast error
Root-mean-square error, lower is better.
12.4% lower RMSE
than the best individual source (BharatFS) in this context · 16.8% lower than the simple-average baseline.
Benchmark comparison
Seven candidates on the same verification sample.
Lower is better · deterministic demonstration data
6.75
adaptive blend
5.52
adaptive blend
-0.03
adaptive blend
0.79
adaptive blend
0.89
adaptive blend
0.14
adaptive blend
0.74
adaptive blend
Event replay
Move the slider to replay how the forecast, weights and confidence evolved toward the observation.
44.4 mm
44.5 mm
0.1 mm
87%
Context under test
Telangana
Heavy rainfall
24h
90-day rolling hindcast
Prototype validation uses deterministic demonstration data. Replace with operational hindcast and observation datasets for production deployment. The comparison logic, metrics and baselines are the ones a production system would use.