Event Explorer

India / Telangana / Hyderabad · Case studies

Event Explorer

Rajasthan · May 2026

Rajasthan High Wind

A dust-laden gust front tracked along the Aravalli flank with gusts near 70 km/h.

Moderate

Event timeline

How the system responded as the event developed.

  1. T-48h

    Ensemble spread

    GEFS spread flags a gust-front scenario.

  2. T-24h

    Ensemble favoured

    GEFS weight rises to 31% on high-wind regime skill.

  3. T-12h

    Track refinement

    Blend narrows the arrival window to a two-hour band.

  4. T-0

    Observation

    Jaipur AWS records a 71 km/h gust; forecast 68 km/h.

Map replay

Forecast footprint for this event. Click a state to inspect neighbouring regions.

Forecast replay

Slide through the forecast cycles toward verification.

Forecast at T-0

71.5 km/h

Observed

72.1 km/h

Uncertainty

69.6–73.6 km/h

Confidence

83%

T-48hT-24hT-12hT-6hT-0

Weights at T-0

BharatFS21%
NCUM19%
GFS18%
GEFS31%
AI Forecast Proxy11%

Model disagreement

Source forecasts against the blend for this event.

Adaptive weight change

Before the event vs during the event.

  • BharatFS20%21%
  • NCUM20%19%
  • GFS20%18%
  • GEFS20%31%
  • AI Forecast Proxy20%11%

Outcome

Validation against the observation network.

Simple average3.78
Best single model (GEFS)3.12
BharatCast adaptive blend2.78

Adaptive blend reduced RMSE by 13.1% relative to the simple-average baseline.

High wind · 24h lead · Rajasthan

Event context

Variable

Wind

Regime

High wind

Disagreement

44

Severity

Moderate

Prototype scenario built on deterministic demonstration data, not a verified historical record.