Telangana Heavy Rainfall
A moisture surge along the Godavari basin produced 24-hour totals well above the seasonal normal.
Event timeline
How the system responded as the event developed.
Signal emerges
GEFS members hint at a low-level convergence zone.
Regime detected
Context engine classifies heavy rainfall; weights shift to BharatFS.
Spread narrows
Source disagreement falls from 61 to 38; confidence rises to 87%.
Observation
Gauge network reports 44.6 mm against a 42 mm blended forecast.
Map replay
Forecast footprint for this event. Click a state to inspect neighbouring regions.
Forecast replay
Slide through the forecast cycles toward verification.
44.4 mm
44.5 mm
43.2–45.7 mm
87%
Model disagreement
Source forecasts against the blend for this event.
Adaptive weight change
Before the event vs during the event.
- BharatFS20%31%
- NCUM20%27%
- GFS20%14%
- GEFS20%20%
- AI Forecast Proxy20%8%
Outcome
Validation against the observation network.
Adaptive blend reduced RMSE by 14.2% relative to the simple-average baseline.
Heavy rainfall · 24h lead · Telangana
Event context
Rainfall
Heavy rainfall
38
High
Prototype scenario built on deterministic demonstration data, not a verified historical record.